SEND Education Transport, Inequalities, Exclusions & Projections

SEND Education Transport

Please note: the full report can be downloaded via the link at the bottom of the SEND Executive Summary section.

Central Bedfordshire Council considers transport an extension of the school day to ensure the children and young people arrive at school or college ready to learn. Wherever possible, and where procurement rules allow, children and young people remain on the same transport with the same driver and passenger assistant, where applicable. Transport is provided in line with Central Bedfordshire Council’s Home to School Transport policies Apply for school transport | Central Bedfordshire Council (accessed 17/10/2025).

In 2024/25 Central Bedfordshire Council provided home-to-school transport for 1,105 young people (including 79 students aged 16 years and over) on 321 routes, all of whom have an EHC plan. 287 were transported by the Council’s own Fleet and Non-Emergency Patient Transport services, an increase from 192 in 2023/24 that has required additional vehicles and staff. Other pupils are transported by private operators whose staff are trained and vetted to the same level as Central Bedfordshire Council employees.

153 young people were provided with single transport, mostly because the young person was the only one attending a particular establishment or sometimes due to the student’s needs. Further, 136 young people are funded through a Personal Transport Budget or the payment of parental mileage.

Inequalities

Inequalities can affect the education, health and well-being of children and young people of all ages. These are covered in the Children and Young People section[1] of the Central Bedfordshire JSNA but they can impact on children with SEND even more, as explored in the following sections on Free School Meals, Ethnicity and Suspensions and Exclusions.

Free School Meals

Across England, pupils with an EHC plan or requiring SEN support are more likely to be eligible for free school meals (FSM) compared to all pupils and to those without special educational needs. In Central Bedfordshire in 2024/25:

• 31.8% (n=977) of pupils with an EHC plan were eligible for free school meals, a lower value compared to the East of England region (38.7%) and England (43.8%) averages
• 25.4% (n=1,440) of local pupils with SEN Support were eligible for free school meals, a lower value compared to the East of England (33.9%) and England (39.3%) averages

Recent local trends in Figure 15 also illustrate how the overall increase in the percentage of pupils eligible for free school meals (‘Total’ line) continues to mirror the overall increase in the percentages of eligible SEND children. The gap between those local pupils eligible for free school meals with an EHC plan or receiving SEN support also remains large but lower than the gaps at regional and national levels.

Further, Figure 16 below illustrates the variation in the relationship between eligibility for free school meals and primary need, although there is no data available for those with Severe Learning Difficulties receiving SEN support.

Figure 15: Trend in pupils (as a %) by type of SEN Support in Central Bedfordshire eligible for free school meals

Figure 16: Free school meal take up by primary need for SEND pupils in Central Bedfordshire state funded schools in 2024/25

In Central Bedfordshire for 2024/25 free school meals eligibility was highest for pupils with the following primary needs, with a similar distribution seen at regional and national levels[2]:

• Social, Emotional and Mental Health (n= 804)
• Autistic Spectrum Disorder (n = 437)
• Moderate Learning Difficulties (n= 356)
• Speech, Language and Communications Needs (n=301)
• Specific Learning Difficulty (n= 255)

Ethnicity

Central Bedfordshire has experienced an increase in numbers of pupils on EHC Plans across all ethnic backgrounds in recent years, as summarised in Figure 17 below. Whilst children and young people from White backgrounds continue to make up the majority, as a proportion they have decreased from 87% in 2015-17 to 81% in 2024/25. During this period the proportion of pupils from Black backgrounds has remained relatively constant (3-4%) but the proportions of pupils from Asian and Mixed backgrounds continue to rise steadily:

• Asian backgrounds – from 2% in 2015/16 to 4% of pupils in 2024/25
• Mixed backgrounds – from 6% in 2015/16 to 9% of pupil in 2024/25  

Figure 17: Trend in ethnicity for pupils on EHC Plan in Central Bedfordshire state-funded schools, 2015/16-2024/25

Central Bedfordshire has also experienced an increase in the numbers of pupils requiring SEN support across all ethnic backgrounds in recent years, though this is more gradual than for EHC Plan pupils and this is summarised in Figure 18 below. Whilst children and young people from White backgrounds continue to make up the majority, as a proportion they have decreased from 89% in 2015/17 to 85% in the 2024/25 data. The proportion of pupils from Mixed backgrounds has also increased steadily during this period, from 5.7% in 2015/16 to 8.3% in 2024/25. However, the proportion of pupils from Black and Asian backgrounds requiring SEN support has remained relatively constant:

• Black backgrounds from 2.6% in 2015/16 to 2.5% in 2024/25
• Asian backgrounds from 1.5% in 2015/16 to 2.3% in 2024/25

Figure 18: Trend in ethnicity for pupils receiving SEN support in Central Bedfordshire state-funded schools, 2015/16-2024/25

Table 15 explores how ethnicity is reflected across the different primary needs in the most recent data. For those local children and young people on EHC Plans, whilst the numbers for many primary needs are relatively small, notable observations when compared to the proportions in Figure 17 include:

• A higher proportion of White pupils (88%) with Specific Learning Difficulty
• A slightly higher proportion of Asian pupils (5%) with Autistic Spectrum Condition
• A slightly higher proportion of Black pupils (6%) with Speech, Language and Communication needs
• A slightly higher proportion of Mixed race pupils (11%) with Social, Emotional and Mental Health Needs

Table 15: Primary need by ethnicity for children and young people by SEN provision in Central Bedfordshire in 2024/25

Primary need	EHC plans						SEN Support
	White	Asian	Black	Mixed	Other	Unclassified	White	Asian	Black	Mixed	Other	Unclassified
Autistic Spectrum Disorder	848 (79%)	59 (5%)	35 (3%)	100 (9%)	18 (2%)	13 (1%)	533 (87%)	8 (1%)	6 (1%)	60 (10%)	4 (1%)	2 (1%)
Downs Syndrome	13 (81%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (3%)
Hearing Impairment	33 (83%)	1 (3%)	3 (8%)	3 (8%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	69 (90%)	3 (4%)	1 (1%)	2 (3%)	1 (1%)	1 (1%)
Moderate Learning Difficulty	205 (86%)	4 (2%)	7 (3%)	18 (8%)	1 (0%)	4 (2%)	717 (85%)	30 (4%)	14 (2%)	61 (7%)	5 (1%)	13 (5%)
Multi-sensory impairment	13 (76%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	14 (88%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (2%)
Other difficulty or disability	17 (71%)	2 (8%)	1 (4%)	4 (17%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	28 (80%)	0 (0%)	1 (3%)	5 (14%)	1 (3%)	0 (0%)
Physical Disability	71 (82%)	3 (3%)	1 (1%)	10 (11%)	0 (0%)	2 (2%)	107 (91%)	2 (2%)	1 (1%)	7 (6%)	1 (1%)	0 (0%)
Profound & Multiple Learning Difficulty	18 (86%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	5 (83%)	1 (17%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
SEN support but no specialist assessment of type of need	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	no data	55 (80%)	0 (0%)	4 (6%)	7 (10%)	0 (0%)	3 (0%)
Severe Learning Difficulty	55 (82%)	2 (3%)	3 (4%)	2 (3%)	0 (0%)	5 (7%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	no data	no data
Social, Emotional and Mental Health	550 (84%)	9 (1%)	17 (3%)	71 (11%)	2 (0%)	8 (1%)	1,457 (84%)	20 (1%)	44 (3%)	175 (10%)	10 (1%)	23 (1%)
Specific Learning Difficulty	160 (88%)	4 (2%)	2 (1%)	14 (8%)	0 (0%)	2 (1%)	899 (89%)	10 (1%)	18 (2%)	63 (6%)	5 (0%)	12 (1%)
Speech, Language and Communications needs	494 (79%)	42 (7%)	37 (6%)	37 (6%)	9 (1%)	6 (1%)	893 (81%)	55 (5%)	52 (5%)	85 (8%)	7 (1%)	11 (0%)
Visual Impairment	20 (100%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	46 (92%)	0 (0%)	1 (2%)	1 (2%)	1 (2%)	1 (0%)

For those local children and young people requiring SEN support, whilst the numbers for many are also relatively small the proportions that differ from the overall patterns in Figure 18 above include:

• A higher proportion of White pupils (88%) with Specific Learning Difficulty
• A higher proportion of Asian pupils (7%) with Speech, Language and Communication needs
• A higher proportion of Black pupils (6%) with Speech, Language and Communication needs

Suspensions, permanent exclusions and alternative provision settings

Table 16 summarises the latest data (2023/24) on suspensions and permanent exclusions from state-funded schools for children and young people in Central Bedfordshire and how this relates to data on eligibility for free school meals, gender, ethnicity and year group. The number of local suspensions for those on EHC Plans and receiving SEN support is comparable to regional and national levels. The numbers of permanent exclusions are small but similar to regional and national levels for SEN support. Though the proportions for those on EHC Plans are higher, the total number (n=16) of pupils is too small for meaningful tests of significance.      

Table 16: A summary of suspensions and permanent exclusions data for SEND pupils in state-funded schools in Central Bedfordshire, 2023/24

Suspensions & permanent exclusions (2023/24)		Suspensions CBC (number)	Supensions CBC (%)	Suspensions East of England (%)	Suspensions England (%)	Permanent exclusions CBC (number)	Permanent exclusions CBC (%)	Permanent exclusions East of England (%)	Permanent exclusions England (%)
SEN provision	SEN support	1,567	27.84	29.41	29.43	27	0.48	0.39	0.41
	EHC plan	776	28.22	28.38	25.62	16	0.58	0.38	0.26
Sex	Female	1,384	5.83	7.32	8.58	17	0.07	0.07	0.08
	Male	3,054	12.27	13.52	13.93	60	0.24	0.16	0.18
FSM	Eligible	2,130	32.00	28.39	27.55	46	0.69	0.33	0.33
	Not eligible	2,308	5.50	5.97	5.99	31	0.07	0.06	0.06
Ethnicity	Asian / Asian British	37	1.81	3.84	3.75	1	0.05	0.04	0.05
	Black / African / Caribbean / Black British	156	9.69	7.02	7.84	4	0.25	0.10	0.10
	Mixed / Multiple ethnic groups	479	12.31	10.90	11.66	13	0.33	0.15	0.16
	White	3588	9.00	11.39	13.07	57	0.14	0.12	0.14
	Any other ethnic group	77	17.82	6.41	7.20	1	0.23	0.08	0.09
	Ethnicity Unclassified	101	13.27	16.16	16.10	1	0.13	0.15	0.17
Year group	Recpetion and Key Stage 1 (Year 2 and below)	342	2.45	2.73	1.69	4	0.03	0.03	0.02
	Key Stage 2 (Years 3-6)	661	4.40	3.75	2.86	11	0.07	0.04	0.04
	Key Stage 3 (Years 7-9)	2207	20.72	23.15	27.00	38	0.36	0.24	0.29
	Key Stage 4 (Years 10-11)	1174	18.57	20.53	23.72	24	0.38	0.25	0.27
	College Years (Years 12 and above)	31	1.15	0.95	1.00	0	0.00	0.01	0.01

Some children and young people subject to permanent exclusion or other reasons for absence (e.g. long-term illness) can be moved into alternative provision settings (e.g. Pupil Referral Unit, AP Academy or Free School) to continue their education in Central Bedfordshire. Table 17 summarises the recent trend in local alternative provision (AP), where the number of AP pupils on EHC Plans has recently decreased and remains below the regional average but slightly above the national average. The number of local AP pupils on SEN support has also recently decreased but remains higher than the regional and national averages.

Table 17: Funded alternative provision in Central Bedfordshire by type of SEND support  

Funded alternative provision, by one year period		Headcount	EHC plans	EHC plans (%)	SEN support/SEN without an EHC plan	SEN support/SEN without an EHC plan (%)
2022/23	Central Bedfordshire	62	16	25.8	43	69.4
	East of England	1,101	336	30.50	564	51
	England	13,191	3368	25.50	7518	57
2023/24	Central Bedfordshire	74	22	29.70	52	70
	East of England	1,345	421	31.30	568	42
	England	15,866	3837	24.20	9212	58
2024/25	Central Bedfordshire	50	14	28.0	34	68.0
	East of England	1363	426	31.3	586	43.0
	England	16,643	4380	26.3	9496	57.1

Secondary Need

The final analysis here summarises the most recent data on secondary needs identified for SEND children and young people in state funded schools in Central Bedfordshire. As summarised in Table 18 below, for local pupils on EHC Plans the following secondary needs were most common. As a proportion, these were similar to regional and national percentages, except for:

• Speech, Language and Communication needs
• Social, Emotional and Mental Health needs (slightly higher than regional & national proportions)
• Autistic Spectrum Conditions 
• Moderate Learning Difficulty
• Specific Learning Difficulty    

Table 18 Proportion of secondary needs by EHC Plan/SEN support for Central Bedfordshire children and young people in 2024/25  

Secondary need	CBC EHC plan (number)	CBC EHC (%)	East of England EHC (%)	England EHC (%)	CBC SEN support (without EHC plan) (number)	CBC SEN (%)	East of England SEN (%)	England SEN (%)
Autistic Spectrum Disorder	227	7.4	10.0	7.1	144	2.5	2.1	1.9
Hearing impairment	22	0.7	0.6	0.6	12	0.2	0.2	0.2
Moderate Learning Difficulty	148	4.8	4.2	4.7	116	2.0	2.0	2.5
Multi-sensory Impairment	17	0.6	0.4	0.5	10	0.2	0.1	0.2
Other Difficulty or Disability	45	1.5	2.1	2.2	68	1.2	1.1	1.1
Physical Disability	37	1.2	1.6	1.7	22	0.4	0.5	0.5
Profound and Multiple Learning Difficulty	8	0.3	0.3	0.3	1	0.0	0.0	0.0
SEN support but no specialist assessment of type of need	0	0	0	0.0	46	0.8	0.7	0.5
Severe Learning Difficulty	58	1.9	1.4	2.0	0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Social, Emotional and Mental Health	312	10.2	7.4	7.4	349	6.2	5.0	4.9
Specific Learning Difficulty	100	3.3	3.3	2.7	121	2.1	2.3	2.1
Speech, Language and Communications needs	316	10.3	10.3	12.3	164	2.9	3.2	3.7
Visual impairment	20	0.7	0.7	0.7	10	0.2	0.2	0.2
Grand Total	1310				1063

For local pupils with SEN support the following secondary needs were most common and, as a proportion, were similar to regional and national percentages:

• Social, Emotional and Mental Health needs
• Speech, Language and Communication needs
• Autistic Spectrum Conditions 
• Specific Learning Difficulty
• Moderate Learning Difficulty  

Lastly, Table 19 below summarises the most recent data on the top three secondary needs for the five most common primary needs for local pupils in state-funded schools. For those on EHC Plans, the proportions of the top three secondary needs by primary need are generally similar to regional and national averages. Notable differences included:

• Higher proportions of pupils with Autistic Spectrum Conditions (primary) and Social, Emotional and Mental Health needs (secondary)
• Lower proportions of pupils with Moderate Learning Difficulty (primary) and Speech, Language and Communication needs (secondary) but the numbers of pupils for the latter are small (n=28).

Similarly, for those local pupils receiving SEN support the proportions of top three secondary needs by primary need are similar to regional and national averages. Notable differences were:

• Higher proportions of pupils with Autistic Spectrum Conditions (primary) and Social, Emotional and Mental Health needs (secondary)

Table 19: Top three secondary needs by primary need for EHC Plan/SEN support for Central Bedfordshire children and young people in 2024/25

Primary need type	Top 3 secondary need	CBC EHC plan (number)	CBC EHC (%)	East of England EHC (%)	England EHC (%)	CBC SEN support (without EHC plan) (no)	CBC SEN (%)	East of England SEN (%)	England SEN (%)
Autistic Spectrum Condition	Speech, Language and Communications needs	192	17.9	16.2	17.8	41	6.7	7.6	9.2
	Social, Emotional and Mental Health	179	16.7	11.6	10.3	116	18.9	14.4	13.7
	Specific Learning Difficulty	46	4.3	3.2	2.5	21	3.4	2.9	3.1
Social, Emotional and Mental Health	Autistic Spectrum Disorder	96	14.6	12.8	11.0	84	4.9	4.1	3.3
	Speech, Language and Communications needs	39	5.9	7.5	10.5	62	3.6	3.7	4.6
	Moderate Learning Difficulty	23	3.5	4.5	4.2	61	3.5	3.5	3.1
Speech, Language and Communications needs	Autistic Spectrum Disorder	96	14.6	12.8	11.0	84	4.9	4.1	3.3
	Speech, Language and Communications needs	39	5.9	7.5	10.5	62	3.6	3.7	4.6
	Moderate Learning Difficulty	23	3.5	4.5	4.2	61	3.5	3.5	3.1
Moderate Learning Difficulty	Speech, Language and Communications needs	28	11.7	17.4	21.6	37	4.4	4.9	5.5
	Social, Emotional and Mental Health	24	10.0	9.6	10.2	41	4.9	5.6	5.7
	Autistic Spectrum Disorder	19	7.9	13.7	7.8	14	1.7	1.1	0.8
Specific Learning Difficulty	Social, Emotional and Mental Health	19	10.4	11.9	11.4	71	7.1	5.7	5.6
	Autistic Spectrum Disorder	19	10.4	7.3	7.4	16	1.6	1.1	1.2
	Speech, Language and Communications needs	16	8.8	10.9	13.4	16	1.6	2.7	3.1

Projections of future demand for SEN provision

The proportion of school pupils receiving SEN provisions in Central Bedfordshire has increased but has been consistently below that of comparator local authorities and England as a whole. Therefore, in addition to the number of children receiving SEN changing in line with the population growth, it is also likely that it will increase further because of a higher proportion of children being identified with SEN. To understand the future demand for SEN provision, five different projection scenarios have been created for the next five years. As summarised below, Scenario 1 is based on a linear projection assuming that recent changes continue to 2029/30. Four alternative scenarios alongside four alternative projections sees proportions of school pupils with SEN provision applied to locally-developed population forecasts. For more background to these longer-term forecasting methods and the assumptions underpinning them please visit the Population Forecast Dashboard[1].

Figure 19: Five projections for future demand for SEN provision in Central Bedfordshire

The five scenarios suggest that increases will be driven primarily by an increase in the proportion of children and young people receiving SEN provision rather than by an increase in the overall local population size. Further, the data behind these projections suggests that the rate of increase in the proportion of local school children with EHC Plans is growing much faster than for England overall. As summarised in Table 20 below, from a baseline of 8,807 pupils in 2024/25 there is potential for the number receiving SEN provision to increase from 324 to 3,133 pupils by 2029/30. Notably, Scenario 4 forecasts an increase in the numbers of CYP on EHC Plans that is not far off the numbers needing SEN support in the next five years. Time and monitoring will inform which scenario best summarises what is actually happening to the local SEN population but it is hoped these projections will help to inform discussions about this.       

Table 20 Projections for future demand in 2029/30 by scenario and type of SEN provision  

Scenario	Number of pupils in 2029/30
	EHC Plan	SEN Support	All SEND
From 2024/25 baseline	3,128	5,679	8,807
Scenario 1	3,893	6,312	10,205
Scenario 2	3,216	5,914	9,131
Scenario 3	2,561	6,853	9,414
Scenario 4	5,742	6,047	11,789
Scenario 5	3,921	8,019	11,940

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References

[1] Children & Young People | Central Bedfordshire JSNA

[2] See Special Educational Needs in England Free School Meals data (Accessed 17/10/2025)

[3] See: Population Forecasts 2023–2043 | Central Bedfordshire JSNA